Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia

This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and cover (LULC) change estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The LULC changes were simulated four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection Development (EPAD) Landscape Restoration Conservation (LERC). based on anticipated assumptions that derived from existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report agricultural development Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis expert knowledge area characteristics. We used Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) model-based projected BAU scenario Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model generate RAE, EPAD LERC landscape. benefit transfer method was estimate total ES trade-off analysis. result showed varied across base 2021. Under RAE cultivated increased by 146,548 ha (22%) 193,965 (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland shrub-bush reduced. However, forest 31,725 100,080 but bare reduced 8466 (21%) 10,379 (25%) under scenarios. annual rate 3.2% 6% As result, value USD 24.5 78.5 million 2051, 27.1 73.2 million. trade-offs among services significantly synergized RAE. Therefore, could be as reference sustainable landscape planning management. ecosystems restoration integrated with intensification approach would enable us ensure sustainability both production synergies without negatively affecting natural environment.